Prediction models developed by Dutch team identify those most at risk from foot ulcer recurrence

New prediction models for foot ulcer recurrence in people with diabetes will help to improve monitoring of those most at risk.

The work by Dutch researchers at the University of Amsterdam and Hospital Group Twente used easy-to-obtain clinical variables to develop prediction models in order to help risk assessment in this high-risk group.

They studied 304 people with foot ulcer history who had 18-month follow-up for ulcer outcome. Two logistic regression prediction models were created: model 1 for all recurrent foot ulcers (n=126 events) and model 2 for recurrent plantar foot ulcers (n=70 events).

The study, led by Associate Professor Dr Sicco Bus, concluded: “These internally validated prediction models predict with reasonable to good calibration and fair discrimination who is at highest risk of ulcer recurrence. The people at highest risk should be monitored more carefully and treated more intensively than others.”

Read the full report here.

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